2025 Kentucky Derby horses, odds, futures, date, preview: Expert who hit 11 Derby-Oaks Doubles gives picks

The 2025 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday at Churchill Downs, with a post time of 6:57 p.m. ET. Looking back at the previous Kentucky Derby winners and results from the Kentucky Derby post positions can help you make the best 2025 Kentucky Derby bets. Journalism, the 3-1 Kentucky Derby favorite, drew post position No. 8, which has the fourth-best winning percentage (9.6%) in Kentucky Derby history. Journalism was the favorite before post positions were assigned and could become an even heavier favorite given the draw, so how should he factor into your 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions on Saturday?

Sovereignty follows at 5-1 among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses, with Sandman at 6-1 in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on betting sites like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez (12-1), who barely cracks the top 10 finishers in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Rodriguez will run from post position No. 4, which has a 5.3% win rate, one of the worst percentages in the Kentucky Derby. Post positions 1 through 8 are the only ones with at least 94 starts, and of those eight, No. 4 has the second-fewest victories (five).

Trainer Bob Baffert is tied for the most Kentucky Derby victories with six. However, Baffert is better known for taking elite horses and helping them make horse racing immortality. However, Rodriguez is outside the top-three favorites and has failed to win three of his five career races. Baffert’s reputation will lead to more bets and drive the price down, so Demling is staying away from the Baffert horse at Churchill Downs. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Luxor Cafe won the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, clinching his spot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field with a smashing win in the Fukuryu Stakes in late March. He brings a four-race winning streak to Churchill Downs, including a pair of wins over UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona.

Luxor Cafe was sired by American Pharoah, who won the 2015 Triple Crown and was named the Horse of the Year. American Pharoah’s offspring have yet to make an impact in the Triple Crown, but that could change with Luxor Cafe. Demling says Luxor Cafe’s resume looks particularly impressive following Admire Daytona’s UAE Derby victory, which is not being properly accounted for in the 2025 Kentucky Derby betting odds. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is especially high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.