Keir Starmer’s poll ratings leap after Trump withdraws support for Ukraine
Keir Starmer’s approval ratings have shot up since Donald Trump returned to the White House and shocked Europe by withdrawing political and military support for Ukraine, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.
Starmer’s Labour government as a whole has also gained public support for its response to the global turbulence caused by Trump’s return – on security and economic issues. His personal ratings have risen by 10% – albeit from an alarmingly low point – compared with a month ago.
Strikingly, Labour, rather than the Conservatives who are traditionally seen as stronger on defence, are now seen as by far the best at dealing with key foreign policy and defence challenges. Around 30% of voters said they would prefer Labour when it comes to “dealing with allies against threats to the UK”, compared with 18% for the Tories. On “allocating funding to the armed forces and defence”, 27% support Labour to do so best against 20% for the Tories. Some 28% say Labour will best safeguard “the UK’s reputation abroad” against 19% for the Tories.
On working to ensure a strong relationship between the UK and EU – as both seek to enhance to Europe’s defence capabilities against a background of the US’s potential scaling back of support for Ukraine and for Nato – 32% prefer Labour to do so against just 16% for the Tories.
Since Trump unveiled his controversial plans to bring peace to Ukraine and announced talks with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Starmer has won praise from MPs across the House of Commons for his response.
While many of his ratings remain solidly in negative territory (when the number disapproving of his performance is subtracted from the number approving) Downing Street will be cheered to see most of them moving in the right direction. Compared with the last time the same questions were asked on 5 February, Starmer’s rating for being “decisive” has gone up by 12%, that for being a “strong leader” by 13%, and for being able to “stand up for Britain’s interests abroad” up by 15%. His rating for being “competent” has climbed by 10% and that for being “likeable”by 10%.
Asked about the Ukraine conflict, 62% of voters say they trust the handling of it by the UK and 52% trust the EU. But just 19% trust the US and 9% Russia. When asked how united or divided they believe countries are over what to do about Ukraine, 67% said the UK and Ukraine were united, 51% said Europe as a whole was united, but only 26% thought the UK and US were united.
On Tuesday Trump announced the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine; 60% thought this the wrong thing to do, compared with 17% who thought it was right – 23% didn’t know. There was strong support from voters of all major parties that this was the wrong thing to do. Reform UK voters are the only group where there is clear division on the issue (44% wrong, 33% right).
Uncertainty is high on whether there will be a US-facilitated peace deal in Ukraine. A quarter (24%) think it likely compared to a third who think unlikely (33%), with 24% saying they don’t know. In the event the US did broker a peace in the region over half (55%) think it would benefit Putin and Russia the most, with only 17% thinking Zelenskyy and Ukraine would be main beneficiaries.
