Will it be a majority win in the 2025 election? The early bets

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In the early days of the 2025 federal election, predictions of possible outcome scenarios have radically altered from what looked like a Conservative sweep to power when the year began.

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The Liberals were favoured among bettors to win the April 28 election, with Bet99 sportsbook giving them a 64-per-cent-chance of winning as of March 31 (1.57 odds), and the Conservatives a 44-per-cent chance (2.25 odds). 

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Back in early January, the Conservatives held a 25-point lead in the polls over the besieged governing Liberals. Then Justin Trudeau resigned as leader of the Liberals, Mark Carney was crowned the new Liberal leader, and Donald Trump, newly sworn in as the 47th U.S. President, initiated a trade war while threatening to make Canada the 51st state.

On Jan. 6, the day Trudeau resigned, this was the state of play, according to polling aggregator 338Canada: 45 per cent of Canadians intended to vote for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives; 20 per cent planned to vote for the Liberals; and 19 per cent of Canadians were casting their ballot for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP.

Fast forward three months later, and 42 per cent of Canadians intended to vote Liberal, 38 per cent planned to vote Conservative, and nine per cent planned to vote NDP, according to 338Canada.

“You can’t deny the Liberal rise, and it’s quite extraordinary… We haven’t seen the Liberals at 40-per-cent-plus in years,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Leger’s central Canada polling. “But the other thing that’s really striking is just the collapse of the NDP, so from a prediction standpoint, that’s probably good news for the Liberals.”

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In politics, of course, there is no such thing as a sure bet. Anything can happen in an election campaign — scandals, major missteps, catastrophic debate performances. To help guide voters, National Post presents the various scenarios that could result from the April 28 election, and how they impact the way Parliament works.

In the 2021 federal election, for example, the Liberals emerged battered but victorious, having won 160 seats. It was short of a majority — that would have been 170 seats — but enough for them to test the confidence of the house. Backed by Singh’s NDP with 25 seats through a supply-and-confidence agreement — criticized as a “coalition” by the Conservatives — the Liberals were able to stay in power and the NDP were able to prioritize some of their policies, such as dental care and pharmacare.

The Conservatives, then led by Erin O’Toole, won 119 seats, and Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois took 32. The remaining two seats went to the Green Party of Canada.

The 2025 election is a two-party race between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Both leaders are asking voters for a majority win.

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After Carney visited Governor General Mary Simon on March 23, seeking the dissolution of Parliament to call an election, he said Canada was facing the most “significant crisis of our lifetimes,” citing the trade war with the United States. “I am asking for a strong, positive mandate from my fellow Canadians.” He has reiterated his call for a majority win in many appearances since.

Pierre Poilievre, launching his campaign the same day, said the question is whether “Canadians can afford a fourth Liberal term. Or is it time to put Canada first for a change, with a new Conservative government.”

But if voters return a minority government result, it’s an open question which of the other parties could provide the necessary support for governing.

There are several ridings in the country where Conservatives are counting on the left-wing vote being split between the Liberals and NDP to scoot up the middle and secure victory. Take Niagara Falls, for example, where Conservative MP Tony Baldinelli won in 2021 with 26,810 votes. But combined, the NDP and Liberal candidates won 36,521 votes. If the NDP-Liberal vote had coalesced behind one candidate, Baldinelli might have lost.

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So, if NDP votes are going to Liberal candidates, that could limit the vote split that normally would benefit Conservative candidates.

As for the Bloc, Enns noted the Trump factor and wave of patriotism could be a challenge for the Quebec sovereignty party.

Prior to Trudeau’s resignation, the Bloc was looking to get as much as 36 per cent of the vote share in Quebec. There was chatter that the Bloc might end up forming the Official Opposition party. But the party’s support has since dropped to 25 per cent in Quebec, according to 338Canada, while Liberal support has surged to 41 per cent.

As things currently stand, here are all the possible scenarios.

LIBERAL MAJORITY

Odds: Possible

Polls show the Liberals with a four-point lead over the Conservatives as of March 31. Analysis by 338Canada puts them solidly in majority territory, with odds of 84 per cent. The polling aggregator is predicting 187 seats for the Liberals, 129 for the Conservatives, 21 for the Bloc, five for the NDP, and one for the Greens.

There are now 343 seats in the House of Commons, so any party wishing to command a majority will need to win 172 seats. If Carney’s Liberals clear that threshold, they’ll have the sort of carte blanche that Trudeau lacked in his final years in office, requiring no support from other parties in Parliament to pass their legislative agenda.

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Among other factors, Enns said that the decline in NDP support, with voters migrating to the Liberals, helps explain the incumbent party’s growth in the polls.

You can’t deny the Liberal rise, and it’s quite extraordinary

Andrew Enns, Leger

As the election entered the second week, Bet99 sportsbook showed the Liberals as the favourite to win a majority, with odds at -135.14. (1.74). That means someone would need to bet $135 to win $100 — good for the Liberals, not so much for betting payouts.

When it comes to the size of the majority, the betting odds for the Liberals to take 170 to 179 seats are +300, according to Bet99, or a 25 per-cent-chance. The odds of a larger majority of 180 to 189 seats are somewhat less likely (+320 or roughly a 24-per-cent chance).

LIBERAL MINORITY

Odds: Less possible

This would mean the Liberals win less than 172 seats. It would put them in the position of having to find another party to prop them up via a formal agreement, like the supply-and-confidence agreement, or simply vote with them on confidence bills such as budgets.

338Canada projects a 16-per-cent chance that a Liberal minority government would be propped up by the Bloc Québécois, and a nine-per-cent chance they’d be backed by the NDP.

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The odds of the Liberals winning less than 150 seats are 4.0 or +300, according to Bet99, which translates to a 25-per-cent chance.

For a Liberal minority scenario to happen, several events need to unfold, said Philippe Fournier of 338Canada. First, the Liberal vote would need to drop off in Quebec, where they are performing “surprisingly” well. A tightening of the race in Ontario could mean the Tories pick up some seats there.

The NDP would also need to recover. Vote-splitting on the left could occur in British Columbia, where the NDP is currently polling at 14-per-cent support. This would normally benefit the Conservatives.

Should all these factors come together, that leaves the matter of who would support a Liberal minority government.

“The Bloc Québécois is not in the business of helping Liberals or Conservatives, especially with a Quebec election and the Parti Québécois leading in polls,” said Fournier. The next Quebec provincial election is in October 2026.

The reality is the Liberals could simply govern without formalized support, testing the confidence of the House as it goes along.

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As for Conservative support, it depends. If the Conservatives lose and Poilievre resigns, that could mean another leadership race — their seventh since 2015. A weakened Conservative party might go along with the Liberal agenda, at least temporarily.

That was how Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper governed in 2006, following a minority win after the dissolution of Parliament by Paul Martin’s Liberals in the wake of the sponsorship scandal. Harper had to seek support from other parties in the House to stay in power. By 2008, Harper had decided Parliament was no longer working and called an election.

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY

Odds: Less possible

Before Christmas, the Conservatives were projected to win most of Atlantic Canada, Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia, while also dominating Ontario.

That’s no longer the case. 338Canada’s early modelling puts the likelihood of the Conservatives reaching 172 seats at less than one per cent.

As of March 31, Bet99’s sportsbook put the odds of the Conservatives winning 170 or more seats at 4.50 (+350), which translates to roughly a 22-per-cent probability.

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To secure a majority government, the Conservatives would need to acquire 52 new seats. They also need to hang on to the 119 seats they won in the 2021 election and the seats acquired in by-elections since the 2021 election. The party entered the 2025 campaign with 120 seats.

They could potentially look to Ontario for additional seats, but that’s unlikely, according to Fournier. “Right now, the Liberals are doing very well in Ontario, so there’s no major gains to be made at this moment,” he said.

In previous elections, it was the split vote, especially around the Greater Toronto Area and B.C.’s Lower Mainland, that helped the Conservatives. So, a resurgence of the NDP could benefit the Conservatives.

“The NDP typically don’t poll well, but they usually are good for somewhere in around the 18, 19 per cent, which in some of those ridings is the secret elixir for the Conservatives,” said Enns.

CONSERVATIVE MINORITY

Odds: Less possible

As of March 31, Bet99 was giving 9.0 odds that the Conservatives would win between 160 and 169 seats and 10.0 odds for 150 to 159 seats. That translates to roughly a 10- or 11-per-cent chance of a Conservative minority win.

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This is a nightmare scenario for the Conservatives. The Liberals could test the confidence of the House with support from the NDP, the Bloc, Greens, or all three, and resume power.

If that failed, the Conservatives would then get a shot at testing the confidence of the House. And then we’re back to the question of who backs the Conservatives.

Maybe the Liberals? Like the scenario of a Liberal minority outcome, if Carney steps down because he failed to form government, and there’s another leadership race, a weakened Liberal party may be forced to support a Conservative agenda.

Or perhaps Poilievre becomes beholden to Blanchet’s Bloc to stay in power. 338Canada gives that outcome — Poilievre backed by Blanchet — a six-per-cent chance of happening. But it’s still the most likely scenario since Fournier estimates the probability of the Conservatives receiving the backing of the NDP at less than one per cent.

It could all mean an incredibly short-lived government.

NDP WIN OR BLOC QUEBECOIS WIN

Odds: Practically impossible

The gambling world is giving +20,000 odds to the NDP, which translates to a 0.5-per-cent chance of winning the election. Those are about the same odds given to the Bloc winning the election, which is mathematically impossible given the Bloc only runs candidates in Quebec. Even if they won every single Quebec seat, they would still be nearly 100 seats short of a majority in the House.

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The real question is what happens to the NDP in the face of a devastating loss. After the 2015 election, the NDP had 39 seats. After the 2019 election, they dropped to 24. After the 2021 election, they had 25. If they drop steeply again, as the polling is predicting, will Singh have to go?

According to the NDP’s constitution, delegates can vote in favour of holding an election for new party leadership at its next convention (yet to be scheduled). If 51 per cent of delegates vote to hold a leadership election, Singh would be ousted and a new leader chosen.

COMPLETE MAYHEM

Odds: Unlikely

This is the chaos scenario: The Liberals and the Conservatives each win 150 seats, which leaves 43 up for grabs, and the Bloc has the majority of remaining seats.

“It’s completely unmanageable,” said Fournier.

On the plus side, this scenario is highly unlikely. The Bloc is now about 16 points behind the Liberals in Quebec.

While that is good news for the Liberals and bad news for the Conservatives, odds are the Bloc will not win enough seats to have massive influence over a minority government.

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A CONSERVATIVE OR LIBERAL WIN BUT A LEADER’S LOSS

Odds: Unlikely

OK, there is an outside chance of this happening, more so with the Liberals than Conservatives.

Poilievre has represented his riding of Carleton since he was 25 years old. In the 2021 election, he won with more than an 11,000-vote margin over his nearest challenger, Liberal Gustave Roy.

So, he’s probably going to hang onto his seat, regardless of whether the Conservatives win or lose the election.

But if the Conservative party loses the election, they could vote to select a new leader, ousting Poilievre from his position. (The Conservatives adopted Michael Chong’s legislation that allows the caucus to defenestrate a disliked leader.)

Carney is probably at more risk. He decided not to run in Edmonton, his hometown, where even under optimistic polling for the Liberals he would have a tough climb. Rather, he’s running in Nepean, a Liberal-friendly riding, but where the Conservative party has run a close race in recent elections.

In 2021, Liberal Chandra Arya won in that riding, with 29,620 votes. But Conservative candidate Matt Triemstra got 22,184 votes, a margin of about 7,000 votes. The result was similar in 2019.

If Carney loses his riding, whether the Liberals win or lose the election, he could decide to resign or the party could choose to elect a new leader. But he need not stand aside. The party leader could run in a safer riding in a by-election to gain a seat in Parliament — if the Liberals were still keen on keeping him around.

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